NFL schedule prognostication means nothing in May. Blog 15 (Frank)

Every year, like clockwork, the NFL releases its schedule and fans, pundits, and algorithms alike spring into action. Analysts flood the airwaves with win-loss predictions, strength-of-schedule rankings, and playoff forecasts. Social media explodes with hot takes on “easy stretches,” “trap games,” and “must-win weeks” before a single snap has been played. It’s a ritual that’s part excitement, part speculation—and almost entirely pointless.

Why? Because in the NFL, the only thing predictable is unpredictability.

Injuries Ruin Predictions

The most obvious reason schedule prognostication is futile is injuries. You can pencil in a win against a team with a rookie quarterback now, but what happens when your Pro Bowl edge rusher tears his ACL in Week 2? Or when the “easy” matchup suddenly features a backup running back who’s setting the league on fire? Every team’s trajectory is fragile, and predicting outcomes months in advance ignores the fundamental chaos of the sport.

Parity Levels the Playing Field

The NFL thrives on parity. Every year, teams go from worst to first. The Texans were 3–13–1 in 2022; by 2023, they won a playoff game. The NFC South seems to reinvent itself annually. Prognosticators base predictions on last year’s records, ignoring the draft, free agency, coaching changes, and player development. What looked like a cakewalk in April may be a gauntlet by November.

Momentum > Matchups

Football is a momentum sport. Teams can start slow and catch fire (think 2021 49ers), or peak early and collapse (think 2020 Steelers). Circled games and perceived “tough stretches” often lose their meaning when a team finds (or loses) its rhythm. Momentum swings faster than a primetime broadcast delay—and it can erase the logic of any preseason prediction.

The Human Factor

These are not Madden simulations. Travel fatigue, locker room chemistry, weather, personal circumstances—none of these are captured in the spreadsheets that power most schedule forecasts. A West Coast team playing three straight 1 p.m. games on the East Coast matters far more in the moment than it does on paper in May.

Enjoy the Ride

Ultimately, obsessing over the schedule in May misses the point. Football fans have precious few months of real games. Instead of treating the release like a crystal ball, let it be what it is: a framework for future drama. The beauty of the NFL isn’t in knowing what will happen—it’s in watching it unfold.

So go ahead, get excited about the season. Just don’t waste your breath arguing over which team has the “easiest path” to 10 wins. If recent history has taught us anything, it’s that those paths don’t exist. Not in the NFL.

Let the games—and the surprises—begin.